USDJPY – Daily Chart – 220825
See today’s full USD/JPY forecast with chart setups and trade ideas.
AUD/USD: Wage Growth, Consumer Sentiment, and RBA Rate Cut Bets
Turning to the AUD/USD pair, expectations of an additional RBA rate cut in November have weighed on Aussie dollar demand. However, recent economic indicators sent mixed signals. Total wages and salaries paid by employers increased 1.5% month-on-month in June, up from an increase of 0.9% in March. Year-on-year, wages and salaries rose 5.9% (March: +5.8%).
Higher wages and lower interest rates may fuel spending and inflation, complicating Q4 rate cut bets. Private sector PMIs also signaled an improving macroeconomic backdrop, potentially delaying further policy easing.
The S&P Global Australia Composite PMI rose from 53.8 in June to 54.9 in July as private sector output expanded at the sharpest pace since April 2022. New export business expanded across the private sector, leading to higher staffing levels. Notably, wage costs contributed to higher inflation. However, the rates of cost inflation softened across the manufacturing and services sectors.
Why do new export order trends matter?
Australia has a trade-GDP ratio of over 50%, with roughly 20% of its workforce in trade-related jobs.
AMP Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist Shane Oliver projected a November rate cut and further policy easing in H1 2026, stating:
“We continue to see the RBA cutting rates again in November, February and May taking the cash rate down to 2.85%.”
However, not all economists share this view, with some cautioning that rising wages could delay further easing.
AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch
Bearish AUD/USD Scenario: Dovish RBA guidance and cooling inflation. These factors could push AUD/USD below the $0.64 support level, potentially exposing the $0.63623 support level.
Bullish AUD/USD Scenario: Hawkish RBA signals and sticky inflation. These factors could drive AUD/USD toward the 200-day EMA, bringing the 50-day EMA into sight.
Explore our full AUD/USD analysis, including key trends and trade data, here.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook: Will Fed Chair Powell Trigger an AUD/USD Decline?
While economists are betting on a November RBA rate cut, uncertainty lingers about the Fed’s policy outlook. Fed Chair Powell’s support for a September Fed rate cut and further policy easing would narrow the US-Aussie interest rate differential. A narrower rate differential could send AUD/USD toward $0.6450, bringing the 200-day EMA into view.
On the other hand, the pair could drop below $0.64, exposing the $0.63623 support level if Powell raises concerns about upside risks to inflation.
AloJapan.com