Japan’s fresh cherry production for the 2025/26 marketing year (MY) is forecast at 12,500 tons. This represents an 8.7 per cent increase from the previous year’s historically low harvest but remains 25 per cent below an average year. High temperatures during pollination in key regions reduced fruit set, keeping output constrained.
Peach production is projected to decrease by 10 per cent in weight compared to last year due to high summer temperatures and limited rainfall during critical growth periods, although the number of fruits is expected to remain stable.
© Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
Cherry planted area and production
Yamagata prefecture accounts for 76 per cent of production, followed by Hokkaido (10 per cent) and Yamanashi (4 per cent). The main varieties are Sato Nishiki (75 per cent) and Beni Shuho (16 per cent). The newer Yamagata Beni Oh has also been introduced to help stagger harvests. Production challenges include labor shortages, an aging farming population, and the high costs of rain-proof shelters required to protect cherries from cracking during Japan’s rainy season.
For 2025/26, Yamagata production is forecast at 9,500 tons, 25 per cent below its annual average of 12,750 tons. National production is forecast at 12,500 tons, still 28 per cent lower than two years ago. Consumption is forecast at 16,800 tons, a 3 per cent increase year-on-year, supported by imports but limited by reduced domestic availability.
In 2024/25, Japan imported 4,754 tons of cherries, 93 per cent from the United States. For 2025/26, imports from the U.S. are forecast to decline 10.5 per cent to 4,300 tons due to reduced shipments from California.
Peach planted area and production
Peaches are cultivated in nearly all prefectures except Okinawa. Yamanashi (29 per cent), Fukushima (27 per cent), Nagano (10 per cent), Yamagata (9 per cent), and Wakayama (5 per cent) account for 80 per cent of total output. The planted area has steadily declined, reaching 9,190 hectares in 2024/25, and is forecast to fall further to 9,100 hectares in 2025/26. The nectarine area is limited to 115 hectares.
Production of peaches and nectarines is forecast at 101,000 tons in 2025/26, down 8.9 per cent from 110,800 tons in 2024/25. Smaller fruit size due to heat and low rainfall accounts for the decline.
Peach consumption and trade
Around 90 per cent of peaches and nectarines are consumed fresh. Domestic consumption in 2025/26 is forecast at 99,450 tons, down 8.6 per cent year-on-year.
Japan exported 2,314 tons of peaches in 2024/25, mainly to Hong Kong and Taiwan. Exports are forecast to fall 22 per cent to 1,800 tons in 2025/26 due to reduced production. Nectarine imports, supplied entirely by the United States, are forecast at 250 tons, slightly lower than 2024/25 levels.
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