USDJPY – Daily Chart – 130825
See today’s full USD/JPY forecast with chart setups and trade ideas.
AUD/USD: Aussie Wage Growth in the Spotlight
Turning to the AUD/USD pair, Australian wage growth figures will influence the RBA rate path and demand for the Aussie dollar. Economists forecast the Wage Price Index to rise 3.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, easing from the first quarter’s 3.4% increase.
Softer wage growth may affect consumer spending, potentially dampening demand-driven inflation. Cooling inflation may raise expectations of a Q4 RBA rate cut. On the other hand, a higher wage growth reading could boost consumer spending, tempering bets on further RBA policy easing.
During Tuesday’s RBA press conference, Governor Michele Bullock signaled a data-dependent policy stance. Governor Bullock also emphasized the RBA’s focus on labor market and inflation data, giving wage growth trends a greater influence on AUD/USD trends.
AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch
Bearish AUD/USD Scenario: Weaker Aussie wage growth or dovish RBA rhetoric. These factors could drag AUD/USD toward the 50-day EMA, potentially exposing the 200-day EMA.
Bullish AUD/USD Scenario: Rising Aussie wages or hawkish RBA cues. These factors could drive AUD/USD toward the crucial $0.6550 resistance level.
Explore our full AUD/USD analysis, including key trends and trade data, here.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook: Fed Chatter and Rate Differentials
Later today, Fed commentary could influence expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts and affect US-Australian interest rate differentials.
Hawkish Fed signals, following a sharper-than-expected pickup in core inflation, could widen the US-Aussie rate differential in the US dollar’s favor. The AUD/USD pair could drop toward the 50-day EMA on fading bets on multiple Fed rate cuts.
On the other hand, dovish Fed rhetoric could drive the pair toward the $0.6550 level. A break above $0.6550 may pave the way toward the crucial $0.66 resistance level.
AloJapan.com