USDJPY – Daily Chart – 080825
See today’s full USD/JPY forecast with chart setups and trade ideas.
AUD/USD: Monthly Business Turnover in Focus
Turning to the AUD/USD pair, the ABS will release monthly business turnover data in the morning session. In June, the monthly business turnover indicator showed declines across five sectors, contributing to a 0.1% fall in the 13-industry aggregate.
A further decline in the business turnover indicator could signal weakening demand, supporting a more dovish RBA rate path. However, investors should consider key sector trends, including accommodation and food services and retail trade. These trends could be crucial for the RBA, given that weakening demand in accommodation and retail trade may materially soften underlying inflation.
Notably, a softening in turnover may also dampen wage growth and labor market conditions.
On the other hand, a positive indicator reading may ease expectations of Q4 RBA rate cuts, boosting demand for the Aussie dollar.
AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch
Bearish AUD/USD Scenario: Weak Aussie data or dovish RBA signals. These factors could drag AUD/USD toward the 50-day EMA, potentially exposing the 200-day EMA.
Bullish AUD/USD Scenario: Positive Aussie data or hawkish RBA rhetoric. These factors could drive AUD/USD toward the crucial $0.6550 resistance level.
Explore our full AUD/USD analysis, including key trends and trade data, here.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook: The Fed Signals and Rate Differentials
Later today, Fed guidance could influence bets on multiple Fed rate cuts and US-Australian interest rate differentials.
Hawkish Fed policy chatter, calling for a delay to rate cuts, would widen the rate differential in favor of the US dollar, pushing AUD/USD toward the 50-day EMA. A drop below the 50-day EMA may expose the 200-day EMA.
Conversely, support for a 50-basis point Fed rate cut in September would narrow the rate differential. A narrower rate differential could send AUD/USD toward the $0.6550 resistance level. A sustained move above the $0.6550 level may enable the bulls to target the July high of $0.6625.
AloJapan.com