The Canadian Open women’s singles semi-final line-up is set, and there is plenty of anticipation for what should be a thrilling evening of action in Montreal.
Home favourite Victoria Mboko will look to stun Elena Rybakina in the first semi-final, before Naomi Osaka and Clara Tauson do battle in a big-hitting second semi-final.
The WTA Rankings situation at this year’s Canadian Open is slightly complicated, with last year’s points not yet dropping off; the tournament was held a week later in the 2024 calendar.
However, here we are still able to take a look at who could be the big winners and losers when the WTA Rankings update post-event.
Current top 10 (as of July 28, 2025)
1) Aryna Sabalenka, 12,420
2) Coco Gauff, 7,669
3) Iga Swiatek, 6,813
4) Jessica Pegula, 6,423
5) Mirra Andreeva, 4,914
6) Zheng Qinwen, 4,553
7) Amanda Anisimova, 4,470
8) Madison Keys, 4,374
9) Jasmine Paolini, 3,576
10) Paula Badosa, 3,454
With a commanding lead at the top, world No 1 Sabalenka’s position was safe regardless of her withdrawal from the event.
Gauff and Swiatek were set to do battle for the crucial world No 2 ranking, with Pegula defending 1,000 ranking points as the two-time reigning champion at the tournament.
Live WTA Rankings top 10 (as of August 6, 2025)
1) Aryna Sabalenka, 12,225
2) Coco Gauff, 7,789
3) Iga Swiatek, 6,933
4) Jessica Pegula, 6,423
5) Mirra Andreeva, 4,948
6) Madison Keys, 4,579 (+2)
7) Zheng Qinwen, 4,533 (-1)
8) Amanda Anisimova, 4,474 (-1)
9) Jasmine Paolini, 3,586
10) Emma Navarro, 3,475 (+1)
Keys is set to be the only significant mover within the top 10, with the complex rankings scenario making the overall picture a little cloudy.
Navarro is provisionally in the top 10 as things stand, though that could change depending on results across the remainder of the event, and will certainly change when last year’s points finally drop off.
With Gauff and Swiatek both falling early, the race for the world No 2 ranking will continue at the Cincinnati Open.
The big winners
Though the rankings are hard to read, there can be no doubt that all four semi-finalists will benefit from their runs in Montreal.
Most notable is the surprise run of home favourite Mboko, who is making her Canadian Open debut this summer.
One of just three wildcards in tournament history to reach the last four, the 18-year-old is set to crack the top 50 of the WTA Rankings for the first time.
Currently at a career-high of world No 85, Mboko is projected to leap 37 places to world No 48 as things stand, though she will crack the top 40 should she defeat Rybakina on Wednesday.
Also surging is Osaka, who is back into the semi-final of a WTA 1000 event for the first time since the 2022 Miami Open.
The Japanese was the world No 49 heading into the event, but is projected to leap up 20 places to world No 29 after reaching the last four.
Should Osaka reach the final or lift the title, she will be back inside the top 25.
After stunning wins over second seed Swiatek and sixth seed Keys, there is also good news for Tauson after a career-best season to date.
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The Dane is currently projected to leap up for places to a new career-high of world No 15 ahead of her semi-final against Osaka, with the 22-year-old eclipsing her active high of 19th.
Ninth seed Rybakina remains at 11th in the WTA Rankings as things stand, though she will move inside the top 10 should she reach the final or lift the title.
However, the Kazakh will ultimately return to the top 10 regardless, with Navarro’s semi-finalist points from 2024 set to drop off her ranking next week.
Other big winners include quarter-finalist Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, who will leap eight places to a new high of world No 43.
Suzan Lamens will rise seven spots to a career-high ranking of world No 57, with Eva Lys up 11 places to 58th in the world.
The big losers
Though her points will not drop off straight away, world No 4 Pegula will lose significant ground on the top three of Sabalenka, Gauff, and Swiatek when her 2024 title is removed from her ranking.
The American earned 1,000 points for her run twelve months ago, though she was shocked in the third round by Anastasija Sevastova earlier this fortnight.
Compatriot Navarro will also eventually drop after losing in round three, dropping semi-final points from 2024, while there is also bad news for Paula Badosa.
The Spaniard skipped the Canadian Open due to injury and, with last year’s champion points in Washington dropping off her ranking, will fall two places to world No 12 as things stand.
2024 Washington runner-up Marie Bouzkova will also drop her points this week and will plummet 14 spots down to world No 53 despite reaching round three in Canada.
Caroline Dolehide is set to drop 22 places to world No 77, while Taylor Townsend is projected to fall 16 places to world No 91.
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