Wednesday’s Omnium Banque Nationale semifinals feature some of the usual starry suspects.
There’s Elena Rybakina, the 2022 Wimbledon champion and current ace leader on the Hologic WTA Tour. There’s Naomi Osaka, a four-time major winner and former World No. 1. And there’s Clara Tauson, sitting second in aces this season and at a career-high ranking, now on the verge of breaking into the Top 10 for the first time.
And then there is Victoria Mboko.
A year ago this week, she was playing an ITF W50 in Zagreb, Croatia. The 18-year-old Canadian lost her first match there to the No. 560-ranked Eszter Meri (in straight sets).
And now, after improbably winning five matches on center court — including a stunning upset of No. 1 seed Coco Gauff in 62 minutes – Mboko is into the final four riding a tsunami of momentum, backed by a wildly partisan crowd.
It’s a run reminiscent of Bianca Andreescu six years ago when she reached the Canadian Open semifinals as a teenager and went on to win the US Open. Mboko, who turns 19 at the end of the months, has displayed unnatural poise.
“I don’t want to say there’s really a secret,” she told reporters. “I think being calm in such stressful situations is key to kind of delivering what you want to do in those such tight moments.
“The human reaction is always to kind of tense up and act out, but I think if I project calmness and relaxedness, I’m going to also have the same thing in my head. I feel like if I don’t really think about it too much and I keep it all cool in my head, that’s what I’m projecting on court.”
We make the case for all four semifinalists:
No. 3 Elena Rybakina vs. Victoria Mboko (Wednesday, 6 p.m. ET)
Head-to-head: Rybakina won the only previous career meeting against Mboko 6-3 7-5 last week in Washington.
The case for Rybakina: For those of you counting at home, this is her fifth semifinal of the year — only World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (nine) and Iga Swiatek (seven) have played more. This is also Rybakina’s fourth hard-court semifinal, following Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Washington.
After a difficult 2024 season, she’s starting to play like the Grand Slam champion she is.
Rybakina, 26, is the youngest player to reach back-to-back semifinals in Montréal since Caroline Wozniacki (2010-2012).
When they played in Washington, Rybakina got a good look at this coming attraction.
“She has really good strokes, and she plays fast, and she has really good serve,” Rybakina said.
Rybakina’s experience was the difference in their first meeting. While both players had three aces, Rybakina had only one double fault — eight fewer than Mboko. The Canadian was actually ahead 5-4 in the second set but lost the last three games.
Rybakina has hit 302 aces this year, more than any other woman. That will be the weapon she relies on most heavily.
“I understand that a lot of people will cheer for her, and she’s young,” Rybakina said. “I will just try to focus on myself, on my serve especially, because I know if it’s really working, then I have much more chances. So that’s going to be the goal.”
The case for Mboko: Destiny and the homefield advantage.
After losing her first four career meetings against Top 20 opponents, Mboko won the most recent against Gauff. Afterward, she put her hands over her face in disbelief. When Mboko defeated Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-4, 6-2 it was a more restrained fist pump.
Down 2-0 in the second set, she won the last six games.
“I think that moment was just pure fight-or-flight kind of instincts,” Mboko said. “I really wanted to do the best I could to break her back, and I did everything in my power to stay in there and match her.
“Every day I always want to move on to the next round, and I always want to reach for the gold and reach for the championship.”
Rybakina has a serving edge in virtually every match she plays, but not in this one. Mboko has hit an extraordinary 37 aces in five matches, averaging 7.4; Rybakina is averaging 6.0.
This is Mboko’s first-career WTA Tour-level semifinal and she’s only the third to do it in Canada, after Elise Burgin in 1983 and Marie Bouzkova in 2019. This might be a good thing. A decade ago, 18-year-old Belinda Bencic made the semis in Toronto — and went on to collect her second career title.
And do not discount the benefits of playing at home. Her coach, Nathalie Tauziat, certainly doesn’t.
“I don’t know if she’s better this week than Washington, but she have maybe more confidence, Vicky, so it can help,” Tauziat said. “The thing she have more than Rybakina this week is the public, so it can change maybe something. We will see, but I’m sure the public will be behind Vicky.
“Compared to Washington, it’s going to be a big issue.”
No. 16 Clara Tauson vs. Naomi Osaka (7:30 p.m. ET)
Head-to-head: Tauson, 1-0, via retirement with an Osaka abdominal injury earlier this year in Auckland after winning the first set 6-4.
The case for Tauson: She has beaten Top 10 players Iga Swiatek and Madison Keys back-to-back in straight sets. It’s the first time in the 22-year-old Dane’s career she’s managed that.
Her serving has been lethal. In a 6-1, 6-4 victory over Keys, Tauson was unbroken for the fourth time this year and won 31 of 40 first-serve points. More impressive, she was 10-for-17 on second serve.
At the same time, Tauson converted three of six break points against Keys, the Australian Open champion, and is now 2-0 against the American.
Afterward, an emotional Tauson revealed that her grandfather died two days earlier.
“I really wanted to win for him today,” Tauson said. “No, I’m definitely not done. I really wanted to come out here and show my best tennis for him. Hopefully, he’s watching.”
This is the seventh WTA Tour semifinal for Tauson — and all of them have come on hardcourts, the surface that best supports her first-strike game. The three top WTA Tour players on hard courts this year: Sabalenka and Swiatek (23 victories), followed by Tauson and Keys with 22.
Tauson is feeling it right now. Her 32 wins this year are more than in the previous three seasons combined.
The case for Osaka: The 6-2, 6-2 victory over Elina Svitolina (in 69 minutes) was a statement win for Osaka. She’s now won five of eight matches against the former World No. 3 and three-time major semifinalist.
Osaka has won five consecutive WTA Tour matches for the first time since reaching the Miami Open’s final in 2022, when she lost to then No. 1 Swiatek.
And, notably, the first time as a mother.
Indeed, the 27-year-old is feeling the hard-court love that won her four major titles in four years, from 2018-2021.
This is Osaka’s best career result in Canada, and the good news is that Serena Williams, who ended her run in the 2019 quarterfinals in Toronto, has been long retired.
Coming in, Svitolina had the fewest games dropped and hadn’t lost a set. Osaka won them both — emphatically. This, after a 49-minute, 6-1, 6-0 win over Anastasija Sevastova in the Round of 16.
Osaka is hitting freely, having survived two match points against Liudmila Samsonova.
“I’m just having a lot of fun playing,” Osaka said in her on-court interview. “I’m glad to be here. She’s really tough. I played her in Auckland this year. I had to stop halfway because I was injured. So I’m really excited that I’m healthy.
“I think I’ll be seeded in the US Open because I won my match. That was a really good goal for me. I’m just really excited. If anyone tunes in, my outfit is super fire.”
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