USDJPY – Daily Chart – 060825
See today’s full USD/JPY forecast with chart setups and trade ideas.
AUD/USD: Aussie Ai Group Industry Index in Focus
Turning to the AUD/USD pair, Australia’s Ai Group Industry Index could affect sentiment toward the economy and the RBA’s policy stance. The Index increased to -3.2 in July, up from -11.9% in June. Economists had expected the Index to rise to -8.9.
A smaller contraction than expected could signal an improving Australian economy, easing bets on multiple RBA rate cuts. A less dovish RBA rate path could bolster demand for the Aussie dollar. The AUD/USD pair briefly dropped to a low of $0.64690 before rising to a high of $0.64753 in response to the data.
According to the July survey, key highlights included:
Rising input costs and wages signaled inflation risks. However, sales prices fell.
Demand improved, with the new orders index rising 6.8 points to -4.9.
However, the employment index declined slightly to -4.0.
Economists consider the Ai Group Industry Index a barometer for the Aussie economy. The index considers survey responses from companies across key sectors, including services, manufacturing, and mining. The Index comprises components such as employment and new orders.
AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch
Bearish AUD/USD Scenario: Weaker-than-expected Aussie data or dovish RBA cues. These factors could push AUD/USD toward the 200-day EMA, bringing the 0.64 support level into play.
Bullish AUD/USD Scenario: Positive Aussie data or hawkish RBA rhetoric. These factors could drive AUD/USD toward the 50-day EMA and the crucial $0.65 resistance level.
Explore our full AUD/USD analysis, including key trends and trade data, here.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook: The Fed and Rate Differentials
Later today, Fed chatter will likely influence Fed rate cut expectations and US-Australian interest rate differentials.
Hawkish Fed policy commentary, supporting a delay to rate cuts, would widen the rate differential in favor of the US dollar, pushing AUD/USD toward the 200-day EMA. A break below the 200-day EMA may pave the way to the $0.64 level.
On the other hand, calls to cut interest rates by 50 basis points and hints of further policy easing would narrow the rate differential. A narrower rate differential could drive AUD/USD toward the 50-day EMA and the $0.65 resistance level. A sustained break above the $0.65 level may bring the July high of $0.6625 into play.
AloJapan.com