Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has suffered severe loss in the latest election. Although L.D.P. gained the most seats, its governing coalition failed to secure a majority in Japan’s Upper House (House of Councilors) due to voters’ fatigue over the high cost of living, the party’s decades-long rule, and migrant issues. Japan’s Upper House has 248 seats. Every three years, half of the seats are elected. Currently, the L.D.P. and its junior partner, the Komeito Party, hold 122 seats, including un-elected seats. On the other hand, the pro-tax-cut Democratic Party for People (DPP) and the Sanseito Party, which calls for “Japanese First” agendas, increased their seats by several times.
Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba vowed to stay in office despite the electoral loss. Ishiba expressed his intention to continue as Prime Minister and L.D.P. president. In the press conference held on 21 July 2025, he said, “We must fulfill the responsibility as the de-facto dominant party (the party that gains the most seats in the parliament, but falling short of the majority) … the most important thing right now is to avoid any delay of political process,” by citing inflation, possible natural disasters, and tariff negotiations with the U.S. At least for now, any major opposition parties are reluctant to join the governing coalition. In an interview with public broadcaster NHK on 20 July 2025, both D.P.P. President Yuichiro Tamaki and Sanseito Leader Souhei Kamiya expressed no willingness to cooperate with Ishiba.
Compared with last year’s national election, hardline rhetoric on migrants has risen. Many parties raised concerns over issues related to foreign nationals in Japan. Especially, Sanseito repeatedly called for the “Japanese First,” slogan. One candidate said, “Most recipients of Japan’s welfare payments are people from overseas” (Data shows that 2.8% recipients of social security services are foreign-born citizens). During the campaign period, similar arguments were also spread on social media. In response to the rise of Sanseito, Ishiba attempted to win over their supporters by adopting a tough approach to immigration issues, such as revising the rules related to converting foreign driver’s licenses. There are numerous problems related to people from foreign nations, ranging from over-tourism, the purchase of real estate around military facilities, and to some foreign nationals’ misbehavior. However, such issues must not justify discrimination and violence against foreign nationals in Japan and the Japanese with foreign roots. Criticisms and solutions must be based on facts, not prejudice and lies.
L.D.P. has dominated post-World War II Japanese politics. Out of the 31 Japanese Prime Ministers since 1955, 25 have been from the L.D.P. Especially, Shinzo Abe maintained premiership for almost eight years from 2012 to 2020, the longest in Japan’s history. One reason is that Abe secured support from both conservative voters, who called for the amendment of the pacifist constitution, and young voters, who expected economic revitalization. In the last election held in 2022, the L.D.P. gained a single majority, partly due to the assassination of Abe that happened two days prior. However, political funding scandals that erupted in late 2023 damaged the L.D.P.’s popularity. To recover momentum, Ishiba dissolved the Lower House as soon as he became Prime Minister. However, Ishiba’s tactics backfired: the L.D.P. and its junior partner Komeito party lost their majority. It is unprecedented that the governing party and its coalition didn’t secure the majority of both houses.
Ishiba might follow the same fate as Shinzo Abe in 2007. The L.D.P. under Abe’s leadership lost the majority in the Upper House election held in that year. At first, Abe clung to power by reshuffling the cabinet. However, he resigned due to mounting unpopularity and his health issue two months after the election. Two years later, the L.D.P. was ousted from power. Until Abe himself made his comeback as Prime Minister in December 2012, Japan’s chief executive position changed every year. This election indicates that the L.D.P.’s support base is eroding: conservative voters have shifted to Sanseito, while working-age and young voters have moved to the D.P.P. Despite Ishiba’s eagerness for staying in power, it doesn’t seem to last for long. Ishiba’s possible successors are likely to face domestic and external difficulties under a hung parliament situation too. We are seeing Japanese politics getting destabilized again.
AloJapan.com