USDJPY – Daily Chart – 040724
USD/JPY: Key Scenarios to Watch
Bearish USD/JPY Scenario: A US-Japan trade deal, strong Japanese data, hawkish BoJ signals, or dovish Fed cues. Such factors could send USD/JPY below the 50-day EMA toward 142.5.
Bullish USD/JPY Scenario: Failed trade talks, weak Japanese data, dovish BoJ cues, or hawkish Fed rhetoric. These may push the pair toward 148.026.
See today’s full USD/JPY forecast with chart setups and trade ideas.
AUD/USD: Aussie Household Spending Indicator and the RBA in Focus
Meanwhile, Australian household spending trends could affect AUD/USD price trends and the RBA rate path. Total household spending rose 0.1% month-on-month in April.
A pickup in spending could bolster the Aussie economy and fuel demand-driven inflation. An improving economic backdrop and rising inflation may temper bets on RBA rate cuts, boosting Aussie dollar demand.
Conversely, a drop in household spending may dampen inflation, signaling a more dovish RBA policy stance. Rising expectations of multiple RBA rate cuts may soften demand for the Aussie, weighing on AUD/USD.
During May’s monetary policy press conference, RBA Governor Michele Bullock stated:
“RBA expects lower rates and rising wages to boost household consumption. But spending has not picked up as much as expected. The Australian labor market and household spending remain the most significant domestic risks.”
AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch
Bearish AUD/USD Scenario: US-China trade tensions, weak Aussie household spending, or dovish RBA signals may push AUD/USD toward the crucial $0.65 support level.
Bullish AUD/USD Scenario: Easing US-China trade tensions, upbeat Aussie data, or hawkish RBA cues could send AUD/USD toward the $0.66 level.
Click here for a more comprehensive analysis of AUD/USD trends and trade data insights.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook: Fed to Influence Rate Differentials
Later today, Fed speakers will dictate US-Australian interest rate differentials and AUD/USD trends.
Dovish Fed rhetoric would narrow the rate differential, favoring the Aussie dollar, sending AUD/USD toward $0.66.
Conversely, hawkish Fed cues may widen the rate differential, favoring the US dollar. A wider rate differential, on expectations of fewer Fed rate cuts, might drag AUD/USD toward $0.65.
AloJapan.com