Japan targets 80% reduction in death toll from projected Nankai Trough megaquake

Japan sets revised earthquake preparedness goals amid new megaquake estimates
Japan’s government is reaffirming its commitment to drastically reduce casualties and structural damage from a potential Nankai Trough megaquake, following updated projections that estimate nearly 300,000 fatalities and over two million destroyed buildings in a worst-case scenario.
A newly reviewed basic plan on disaster preparedness, based on damage estimates released in March, is expected to retain targets set in 2014. These goals include an 80 per cent reduction in the death toll and a 50 per cent reduction in structural damage within the next ten years. The government initially outlined these objectives to prepare for a catastrophic earthquake and tsunami originating in the Nankai Trough, a seismically active zone located off Japan’s Pacific coast.Also read: Mega tsunami, boiling ocean: Japan’s ‘Baba Vanga’ Ryo Tatsuki’s apocalyptic prediction sends ripples across the globe

The March estimate, however, projected 298,000 deaths and 2.35 million destroyed buildings in the most severe outcome. These figures significantly exceed prior assumptions and highlight the ongoing risks posed by a Nankai Trough earthquake. The updated projections have prompted the government to re-examine its nationwide strategy to enhance resilience and readiness.

Live EventsQuake-resistant housing and circuit breakers included in measures
To achieve the reduction targets, the government plans to expand its support for making homes more earthquake-resistant. This includes reinforcing older structures and promoting the installation of quake-sensitive circuit breakers to prevent fires during seismic activity. Additional initiatives involve building embankments and other infrastructure upgrades to mitigate tsunami and flood impacts in coastal regions.The revised basic plan also includes regular monitoring of progress and impact assessments, with expert consultation guiding adjustments. The government will assess implementation at local and national levels to ensure the consistency and effectiveness of disaster preparedness measures. By integrating input from academics, engineers, and emergency management professionals, the plan aims to support proactive risk reduction.Also read: 3.4-magnitude earthquake shakes East Bay near Pinole, USGS reports

Official endorsement of Nankai Trough earthquake plan expected
The basic plan on countermeasures for a Nankai Trough megaquake is expected to receive official endorsement next month. Japan continues to treat seismic preparedness as a national priority, particularly in light of recent modeling that underscores the potential for widespread devastation along the Pacific coast.

Officials emphasize that public awareness, structural reinforcement, and community-based planning will be key to achieving the death toll and damage reduction goals. The government’s strategy is designed to build resilience in vulnerable communities and reduce the human and economic costs of future seismic disasters.