USDJPY – Daily Chart – 040625
USD/JPY: Key Scenarios to Watch
Bearish USD/JPY Scenario: Rising trade tensions, hawkish BoJ cues, weaker US data, or dovish Fed rhetoric could drag USD/JPY toward 140.309.
Bullish USD/JPY Scenario: Easing trade friction, dovish BoJ signals, upbeat US data, or hawkish Fed cues may lift the pair toward 145.507.
See today’s full USD/JPY forecast with chart setups and trade ideas.
AUD/USD in Focus: GDP Data Crucial for the RBA
Also scheduled for June 4, Aussie GDP numbers will influence the RBA rate path and AUD/USD trends. Economists forecast the economy to expand 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025, slowing from 0.6% growth in the previous quarter.
Slower-than-expected growth may bolster bets on multiple RBA rate cuts, potentially pushing AUD/USD toward $0.64. Conversely, a higher GDP print could signal a less dovish RBA rate path, driving the pair toward $0.65 and the May 26 high of $0.65370.
During May’s RBA press conference, RBA Governor Michele Bullock highlighted potential risks to the Aussie economy, stating:
“The Australian labor market and household spending remain the most significant domestic risks.”
Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP, remarked on Tuesday’s RBA meeting minutes:
“RBA mins were dovish. The RBA opted for a 0.25% cut rather than 0.5% to be cautious & predictable but it stressed commitment to both infl & full emp objectives & indicated it was well placed to respond to trade war threat. Our base case is for the next cut in Aug but Jul is live.”
AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch
Bearish Aussie dollar Scenario: Weaker GDP or dovish RBA cues may push AUD/USD below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) toward $0.64.
Bullish Aussie dollar Scenario: Stronger GDP growth or hawkish RBA signals could send the pair toward $0.65 and potentially retest the May 26 high of $0.65370.
Click here for a more comprehensive analysis of AUD/USD trends and trade data insights.
Aussie Dollar Daily Outlook: US Labor Market and Services in Focus
Later today, US services sector and labor market data will affect US-Aussie interest rate differentials and AUD/USD. Better-than-expected labor market and services sector data would likely widen the US-Aussie interest rate differential in favor of the US dollar. A widening rate differential may pull AUD/USD below the 200-day EMA and $0.64. Increased selling pressure could potentially bring the $0.63623 support level into play.
Conversely, softer data may narrow the rate differential and drive AUD/USD above $0.65 toward $0.65370.
Beyond the economic data, trade developments and Fed signals will continue to drive price volatility.
AloJapan.com