USDJPY – Daily Chart – 300525
USD/JPY: Key Scenarios to Watch
Bearish USD/JPY Scenario: Renewed trade tensions, hawkish BoJ signals, softer US inflation, or dovish Fed rhetoric could drag USD/JPY below 142.108 toward 140.
Bullish USD/JPY Scenario: Easing trade friction, a dovish BoJ, hotter US inflation, or hawkish Fed signals may lift the pair toward 145.507.
See today’s full USD/JPY forecast with chart setups and trade ideas.
AUD/USD in Focus: Retail Sales and the RBA Rate Path
On May 30, Aussie retail sales figures will put the Australian economy and AUD/USD center stage. Economists expect retail sales to rise 0.3% month-on-month in April, matching March’s increase.
Higher spending may fuel demand-driven inflation, potentially tempering bets on multiple RBA rate cuts. A less dovish RBA stance might send AUD/USD toward $0.65. However, a softer reading could fuel speculation about multiple rate cuts, pushing the pair toward $0.64.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock raised concerns about lackluster household spending during the monetary policy press conference, stating:
“RBA expects lower rates and rising wages to boost household consumption. But spending has not picked up as much as expected… The Australian labor market and household spending remain the most significant domestic risks.”
AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch
Bearish Aussie dollar Scenario: Falling Aussie retail sales or dovish RBA cues may send AUD/USD below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) toward $0.64.
Bullish Aussie dollar Scenario: Rising retail sales or hawkish RBA rhetoric could drive the pair toward the May 26 high of $0.65370.
Click here for a more comprehensive analysis of AUD/USD trends and trade data insights.
Aussie Dollar Daily Outlook: US Inflation and the Fed Rate Path
Later today, US inflation data will influence US-Aussie interest rate differentials and AUD/USD. Hotter inflation would likely widen the US-Aussie interest rate differential in favor of the US dollar. A wider differential could send AUD/USD below the 200-day EMA and expose the $0.63623 support level.
Conversely, softer inflation may narrow the rate differential and push AUD/USD toward $0.65370
Beyond the data, trade developments will continue to drive price volatility. On May 23, AUD/USD soared from $0.64069 to $0.65370 following Trump’s EU tariff threats. However, a delay to EU tariffs left the pair below $0.64500 on May 27.
AloJapan.com