“The quake speculations are definitely having a negative impact on Japan tourism and it will slow the boom temporarily,” said Eric Zhu, Bloomberg Intelligence’s analyst for aviation and defence. “Travellers are taking a risk-adverse approach given the plethora of other short-haul options in the region.”
The Future I Saw predicts a tsunami will hit Japan in July this year.
Zhu expects more airlines to feel some pain over the next few months based on current booking patterns and anticipated flight loads.
Cathay Pacific Airways may be particularly at risk given its high exposure to the Japanese tourism market. The group, which includes Hong Kong Express, is planning to devote nearly a fifth of its scheduled seats to Japan through to the northern autumn, making it the largest international market for the airlines, Zhu said in a note.
Tatsuki’s work — The Future I Saw — is based on a dream in which a tsunami inundates the Japanese archipelago and impacts Hong Kong, Taiwan and the Philippines. The rumours have also been fuelled by a prominent Hong Kong feng shui master who doles out predictions to a large online following and urged holiday seekers to avoid Japan.
Others have seized on a February report by a Japanese government earthquake task force that’s long monitored seismic activity along the Nankai Trough and that’s raised the risk of a mega earthquake that could trigger 30-metre tsunamis within the next 30 years to around 80 per cent.
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For her part, Tatsuki, now retired and still living in Japan, said the high level of interest reflects the growing awareness of disaster preparedness.
“I, myself, would like to take precautions such as stockpiling supplies in preparation for disasters and confirming evacuation routes when going out,” she said in a statement. “I intend to remain vigilant on a daily basis as we approach July 2025.”
Bloomberg
AloJapan.com