Canadian Solar Infrastructure Fund says April output fell 10.2% below forecast across its Japan portfolio due to increased grid curtailments, especially on the island of Kyushu.
May 14, 2025
Brian Publicover
Canadian Solar Infrastructure Fund has recorded a shortfall in April electricity generation across its 33 solar assets in Japan. It cited an increase in curtailment rates by transmission operators as the main factor behind the underperformance.
The fund said it generated 24.7 GWh in April, 10.2% below its forecast of 27.5 GWh based on P50 projections. This marked the second consecutive month of underperformance, following a larger shortfall in March. Output for the January-April period came in 6 GWh below forecast, equivalent to a 7.1% miss, according to the fund.
The April curtailments – temporary reductions in power output mandated by grid operators to alleviate congestion – occurred 204 times across the fund’s portfolio, up from 227 in March. The fund operates under Japan’s non-firm grid connection regime, which permits such interruptions without compensation. The most affected sites were on the island of Kyushu, which accounted for most of the fund’s curtailed capacity.
Curtailments led to a JPY 231.6 million ($1.58 million) reduction in variable rent income for April, the fund said. Total rent reductions due to curtailment since the start of the fiscal year now amount to JPY 436.5 million, representing 9.34% of its expected rent revenue.
Under the fund’s rental structure, asset managers receive a fixed base rent equal to 70% of projected output, with a variable component only paid if output exceeds that threshold. The fund said that several facilities, including CS Koriyama-shi, fell below the 70% threshold in April.
Several of the fund’s projects are in Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s (Tepco) service area, which did not record any curtailment in April. However, Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) warned in a January 2025 meeting that economic curtailments would begin in the Tokyo region in fiscal 2025. METI said it expects 2 TWh of curtailments nationwide this year, with about half in Kyushu and an estimated 3 GWh in Tokyo. The figures were published by METI’s Next-Generation Power Grid Working Group.
In April, the Japanese government launched applications for a fiscal 2024 subsidy program supporting renewable heat and industrial waste heat systems. And earlier this month, Japan allocated 1.4 GW of battery energy storage (BESS) in its second Long-Term Decarbonization Auction (LTDA), with BESS making up 22% of the awarded capacity.
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