Okinawa Gov. Denny Tamaki speaks during an interview in Naha on Dec. 19, 2024. (Mainichi/Shinnosuke Kyan)
The Japanese government has announced a plan to evacuate residents from Okinawa Prefecture’s Sakishima Islands to eight prefectures in the Kyushu-Yamaguchi region in southwest Japan in the event of a Taiwan contingency, given the impact such a scenario could have on Japan.
The plan is based on the nation’s law on measures to protect civilians in the event of armed attacks, which stipulates evacuations when a military attack is anticipated.
Under the plan, some 120,000 people from five municipalities in the Sakishima Islands would be evacuated over six days, and be transported to southwestern Japan’s Kyushu region by sea and air. Long-distance travel on land would involve not only bullet trains but also buses.
It is uncertain, however, whether private companies would be able to operate ships and aircraft as scheduled in the face of impending danger and the anticipated chaos of such a contingency. Additionally, Japan is facing an increasingly severe shortage of bus drivers nationwide, raising concerns it may not be possible to secure enough personnel.
The plan assumes that all rooms in hotels and inns at the evacuation destinations will be available, but it remains unclear how many accommodations can actually be secured. Furthermore, since the government would pay less than the usual lodging rate for the rooms, facilities may be unwilling to cooperate.
Central government and Okinawan local government officials participate in a chart-based evacuation drill simulating a contingency involving an armed attack, at the Okinawa Prefectural Government headquarters in Naha on Jan. 30, 2024. (Mainichi/Hiroshi Higa)
A training exercise with residents is scheduled for fiscal 2026 to identify problems, with a subsequent review of the plan. It is essential to continue conducting more inspections to heighten the effectiveness of the plan.
The security environment in East Asia is becoming increasingly tense, and there is a need to prepare for the worst-case scenario. Yonaguni Island, Japan’s westernmost point, lies just about 110 kilometers from Taiwan.
However, there is deep-rooted resistance in Okinawa, where U.S. military and Self-Defense Forces facilities are concentrated, against plans premised on the region becoming a battlefield.
During a briefing for residents in the city of Ishigaki, concerns were raised about ensuring safety while evacuating and anxiety over living as evacuees for a prolonged period. It was only natural that Okinawa Gov. Denny Tamaki called on the central government to provide careful explanations to alleviate local concerns.
As the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have shown, it is civilians who bear the brunt of war. The government must exhaust all diplomatic efforts to ease tensions in East Asia through dialogue with neighboring countries.
This year marks the 80th anniversary of the Battle of Okinawa, which claimed the lives of nearly 190,000 Japanese people. Once a fierce battleground, Okinawa Prefecture must not be exposed to the ravages of war again.
AloJapan.com