Hawaii’s tourism numbers are nearing pre-COVID levels, but a fresh tailwind is emerging—this time from across the Atlantic. With European airline executives signaling a potential slowdown, U.S. travelers could pivot away from international destinations and back to Hawaii, reshaping the state’s tourism landscape.
Unlike January’s picture of hesitation and recalibration, this story is about a shift in momentum. While total visitor expenditures hit $1.73 billion in February 2025, inflation-adjusted figures show minimal real growth. What looks like recovery may be more of a reshuffle, driven by U.S. travelers shifting back to Hawaii from overseas vacations to something closer to home.
Arrivals from the mainland were up 13 percent over February 2019, with total U.S. arrivals reaching 569,962 in February 2025, compared to 505,236 in February 2019. (Source: DBEDT February 2025 report, Table 1).
Meanwhile, travel from Japan remains down 60 percent compared to 2019. Arrivals from Canada fell 30.4 percent compared to February 2019, with 48,693 visitors versus 69,998, with strong signs of further decline coming.
Arrivals from all other international markets fell 13.7 percent compared to February 2019, with 72,967 visitors in February 2025 versus 84,561.
Polihale Beach, Kauai, by Beat of Hawaii.
Hawaii is once again well-positioned as an alternative to Europe.
That same dynamic that occurred after Covid could play out again in 2026. Airline executives meeting this week in Brussels said transatlantic demand remains high “for now,” but noted that change may be on the horizon. With Europe’s economic and political landscape facing increasing uncertainty, the writing on the wall is that Hawaii could again see a surge in interest as a domestic mid-haul option.
Airlines for Europe (A4E) Discussing Future Travel Decline.
“There will never be more passengers on the transatlantic than this summer,” said Lufthansa’s CEO, referencing record capacity. But beneath that record-setting confidence is a nervous eye on what lies ahead.
Unlike the more inward-looking tone we reported in early 2025, industry leaders are now bracing for a shift driven by global volatility wherein Hawaii could be the beneficiary.
Just as Hawaii drew U.S. travelers during the pandemic when Europe was closed, it may once again become the fallback choice. Rising costs abroad, safety concerns, or travel fatigue could all push Americans to reconsider where they go next.
As Hawaii reclaims its spot as a domestic alternative, the question looms: Is the state ready to meet the moment?
Is Hawaii even prepared for another pivot?
If travelers begin opting out of international trips and returning to Hawaii in larger numbers, the concern isn’t just about capacity—it’s about the islands’ readiness and willingness. Ongoing debates over vacation rentals, new fees, and tourism strategy remain unresolved.
Hawaii’s infrastructure, from airports to hotels, has not even begun to catch up to shifting demand. If another wave of U.S. travelers shows up in 2026, the state could again find itself reacting instead of preparing.
Waikiki Beach at the Royal Hawaiian Hotel.
Visitors are spending more for less.
Though visitor spending was up 24 percent from February 2019, it doesn’t tell the whole story. Adjusted for inflation, 2019’s $1.39 billion equates to about $1.75 billion today—more than this February’s $1.73 billion.
Some travelers feel Hawaii has become more transactional, losing the personalized experience they once expected. Higher nightly rates, cleaning fees, and resort charges all chip away at perceived value.
Beat of Hawaii readers have consistently shared frustrations about pricing, service quality, and a sense that something has shifted. Many feel priced out. Others say the experience has lost the unique warmth and aloha that Hawaii has long been known for.
That perception has pushed some to other destinations, from Tahiti to the California coast. Still, if international demand slows, Hawaii may attract returning visitors, not necessarily because it has improved, but because it remains close and familiar.
Japan and Canada are still missing.
Hawaii’s international recovery remains anemic. Japanese and Canadian visitors are simply not returning meaningfully.
Until those segments return in force, which is questionable, Hawaii will continue relying on domestic travelers to sustain its tourism economy. Is this a marriage made in heaven? It depends on your point of view.
Could sentiment shift again?
U.S. travelers have already proven they’ll pivot toward Hawaii when global events demand it. Economic uncertainty, political instability, and significantly rising travel costs abroad could drive that pivot again.
But sentiment also matters. Even if visitors return by default, their expectations remain high. The top priorities are still cultural connection, fair pricing, and feeling genuinely welcome.
Beat of Hawaii readers often say they’re willing to spend more—if the experience matches the price. But when that balance tips, repeat visits become less and less likely.
What lies ahead?
All eyes now turn to what fall and winter travel patterns reveal. If airlines reduce European routes or hold off on new Asia-Pacific expansions, it could signify a broader shift in where Americans are heading next.
If 2026 unfolds as airline heads now anticipate, Hawaii’s rebound won’t be driven by either the price or its marketing—it’ll be shaped by a process of elimination as international trips lose steam.
To seize this opportunity, Hawaii must prioritize value, cultural connection, and infrastructure improvements, ensuring it’s not just a fallback, but a destination of choice.
Hawaii’s next chapter depends on its ability to adapt. Will it rise to the challenge and reclaim its place as a top destination, or will travelers seek value elsewhere?
Your comments on today’s article are appreciated. Mahalo!
Get Breaking Hawaii Travel News
AloJapan.com